This has been a fun one to research. If you had to bet, I have the best guess possible on when we could see snow.

There are a bunch of factors to look at when trying to pick a date for the first possibility of snow. The first factor is almost always going to be history.  According to Weatherspark, "cold season" in Lubbock starts on November 24th. Since you can't have snow without cold temperatures, that's a pretty good start.

Accuweather's long range forecast is also showing that November 24th is the first day with an average historical low of 32 degrees.

The National Weather Service isn't much help without a little reading between the lines.  They list October 17th as earliest snowfall in 1999 but don't really have an "average" date. They do however say that on average Lubbock gets .09 inches of snow in November.

Now, here comes the monkey wrench(es).

Climate.gov has a chance coming at you much earlier. According to their site, there is a 50 percent chance of at least .01 inches of snow on the ground on November 3rd. Also, I ran into my favorite meteorologist, and just off the top of her head she said that due to current weather patterns in the gulf, it could happen earlier.

So let's keep in mind here that this is Lubbock. It could be 100 degree, or toads could fall from the sky at any given moment. But if you were trying to win a first snowfall contest, the most likely day to bet on is somewhere between November 3rd and November 24th. The 24th seems the most likely to me.

For those of you keeping score, that's two days after turkey day, so make sure you rush your visitors out of the house just in case.

  • BONUS

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