Texas Tech Football Will Go 4-6, According to ESPN's FPI

Texas Tech football's conference-only plus one schedule has positives and negatives. Just looking at the schedule with a keen eye is one thing, but what does the science and data say about the Texas Tech football schedule?

We all know science and data belong in college football.

One of the places analytics reigns supreme is the Football Power Index from ESPN. The FPI has Texas Tech as the 41st best team in the nation heading into the 2020 season, though that number will rise significantly once the season starts and the Pac 12 and Big Ten schools fall off without games. If you remove the schools not playing in the fall, Texas Tech jumps to 26th in the country.

That seems like good news for the Red Raiders, but it's a double-edged sword in some regards. The second edge in this scenario is that six teams in the Big 12 are rated ahead of the Red Raiders in the FPI.

The main feature of the FPI is that it predicts wins and losses for every college football game and puts a percentage chance of winning beside each team. How does Texas Tech stack up against its 2020 schedule? The short answer is...not terrible. Sure, 4-6 is a losing record, but with Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Iowa State all predicted to have quality seasons, those four being losses in the system are unsurprising.

The Red Raiders being predicted to lose at Kansas State isn't a stretch, though I'd argue that that percentage should be closer. TCU being predicted to beat Texas Tech with their offseason turmoil and loss of their best offensive talent and offensive lineman is the biggest stretch of the FPI predictions for Texas Tech.

Here is the game by game breakdown of each game on the Texas Tech schedule along with the percentage chance that Texas Tech has to win that game.